Saturday, March 26, 2011

Stock Market Puzzle


Nobody Knows when the markets moves up or down !

The market was going smoothly in 2010 and than it declined nearly 20% all of a sudden. What were the reasons for it ? People can only find out the reasons after the market actually falls. People gave lot of reasons
  • Egypt Crisis
  • Inflationary Conditions
  • High Interest Rate to reduce the Profitability of India Inc
  • Corporate Governance issues emerging in Indian Companies
  • Libya Crisis
  •  Manmohan Singh Government and scams
  • Crude Oil to hit the growth of India 

Few of the economist had even written off India. Likes of Goldman Sachs said that developed countries will outperform the emerging economies .. hmm too many views all of a sudden..

Now the market has recovered almost 1000 points in a short run. The conditions are actually quite similar to earlier conditions or much worst that what they were. The crisis in Japan can also affect the growth of the world, than you have RBI increasing the policy rates yet again and none of the earlier conditions have actually changed.

The truth is that no one can predict the direction of market in short run and whenever market takes sharp turn than most of the market players are caught unaware of it and it is not logical.

The funny side of the story is that whenever there is a strong rumor that the market it is going to decline, usually there is no actual decline in stocks and when the market declines, nobody knows it.

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